Thursday, May 13, 2010

Euro Breaks 14-Month Low as Debt-Cutting Steps May Hurt Growth

- The euro headed for a fourth weekly decline, breaking through the 14-month low reached against the dollar last week, on concern European nations’ debt-cutting measures will undermine economic growth.
The 16-nation currency touched the least in a week versus the yen before Greece submits a progress report tomorrow to the European Commission on the implementation of a deficit-reduction plan. The yen gained versus all 16 of its major counterparts as Asian stocks and commodities fell, boosting demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
“The roots of the debt crisis in Europe have yet to be solved,” said Yoh Nihei, a Tokyo-based trading group manager at Tokai Tokyo Securities Co. “People have reservations about the effectiveness of the loan package. I remain negative on the euro from a long-term perspective.”
The euro was at $1.2527 as of 10:08 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.2535 in New York yesterday, after touching $1.2516, the lowest level since March 5, 2009. Europe’s currency traded at 116.16 yen from 116.27 yen. It earlier touched 115.88 yen, the lowest since May 7. The yen was at 92.70 per dollar from 92.75.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.9 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares slipped 1.2 percent. The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index of 19 raw materials declined 0.4 percent yesterday.
Unprecedented Loan Package
Europe’s currency has fallen 1.8 percent this week after the region’s policy makers unveiled an unprecedented loan package worth almost $1 trillion to combat the sovereign-debt crisis that’s threatening the currency. European Central Bank governing council member Guy Quaden said yesterday the situation facing Greece is worse than in other European nations.
Greece has announced three rounds of deficit-reduction measures this year, including increases in sales tax and levies on fuel, alcohol and tobacco. It last week agreed to a new package including wage and pension cuts to qualify for 110 billion euros ($138 billion) in emergency loans from the EU and the International Monetary Fund.
“Investors are still concerned widespread fiscal tightening could derail the already weak European economic recovery,” said Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. “A test of the euro’s 2008 low of $1.2330 looks likely in coming sessions.”
Portugal, Spain
Portugal lowered its budget-deficit goal for 2011 to 4.6 percent and approved tax increases and spending cuts. The government maintained a 7.3 percent deficit target for 2010. Last year’s deficit was 9.4 percent of gross domestic product.
Spain this week announced plans to reduce the deficit to 6 percent of GDP in 2011 from 11.2 percent last year, the largest two-year cut since at least 1980. Trade union UGT will stage a one-day strike of public sector workers in June, Candido Mendez, general secretary of the union, said in Madrid yesterday.
“The euro grinds lower on continued pessimism regarding peripheral euro-zone countries,” analysts led by Marc Chandler, New York-based global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., wrote in a research note dated today. “We remain negative on the euro.”
The euro has lost 8.5 percent this year, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar has gained 6.1 percent, and the yen has advanced 6.6 percent.
The dollar was poised to snap two weeks of declines against the yen before U.S. reports that may show retail sales rose for a seventh month and confidence among consumers improved in April, adding to signs the world’s largest economy is recovering.
U.S. Economy
“The outlook for the U.S. economy appears upbeat,” said Akane Vallery Uchida, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo. “This will probably be a positive factor for the greenback.”
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said yesterday the pledge to keep interest rates low for an “extended period” doesn’t stop the central bank from raising rates “if economic conditions change appropriately, whether that’s in three weeks, three months or three years.”
--With assistance from Craig Torres in Washington and Greg Quinn in Ottawa. Editors: Garfield Reynolds, Rocky Swift.we were dear to each other
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Pakistan arrests man with militant ties who says he aided Times Square bomb suspect

The Pakistani government has arrested a suspect with connections to a Pakistani militant group who said he acted as an accomplice to the man accused of trying to bomb Times Square, U.S. officials said.
The suspect, whose arrest has not been previously disclosed, provided an "independent stream" of evidence that the Pakistani Taliban were behind the attempt and has admitted helping Faisal Shahzad, the main suspect, travel into Pakistan's tribal belt for bomb training.
Officials familiar with the investigation cautioned about inconsistencies in the two suspects' accounts. Federal authorities expanded their search for evidence Thursday, carrying out raids in four northeastern states, and arresting three people suspected of funneling money to Shahzad.
Indeed, the U.S. determination that the Pakistani Taliban directed the attempted attack is based largely on accounts given by the two men, several U.S. officials said. Authorities have been examining phone records, e-mail and other communication to see whether they contain firmer evidence of links between Shahzad and the Pakistani Taliban.
"What they said has been corroborated by other evidence,'' said a senior law enforcement source, who would not specify that evidence, saying it is classified.
The suspect in Pakistani custody "is believed to have a connection to the TTP," said a U.S. intelligence official, using an acronym for the Pakistani Taliban. Clues have added to authorities' understanding of the plot, the official said, but "what is definitely true is that a lot of this comes from the statements of people directly involved."
Assessing the role of the Pakistani Taliban carries significant stakes. A clear link would move the militant group onto an expanding list of al-Qaeda affiliates that pose a direct threat to the United States. It would also put new pressure on the U.S. relationship with Pakistan at a time when President Obama is pushing the country to expand its military campaign against insurgent groups.
In Islamabad, Pakistani security officials said Thursday that they had made no progress in finding concrete or credible evidence linking Shahzad to any Islamic militant activity in Pakistan or suggesting that he had traveled to the northwest and received training from the Pakistani Taliban.
U.S. officials declined to identify the suspect in Pakistan, but said American investigators have had direct access to him, and described him as a facilitator for the Pakistani Taliban.
U.S. investigators have pieced together their understanding of the Times Square plot largely by comparing the man's accounts with those of Shahzad. The broad outlines of their stories have been consistent, officials said, describing Shahzad's arrival in Karachi last year and his travel north to Waziristan for training with elements of the Pakistani Taliban.
But a second U.S. official briefed on the progress of the case said there are some "conflicts, disconnects" in their accounts. The discrepancies center mainly on the details and chronology of Shahzad's travel and training. Officials said the conflicts have raised some questions about the reliability of the suspects' information, but have not cast significant doubt on the overall understanding of the plot.
U.S. officials said they also think Shahzad and the man may have exaggerated their accounts. Both said they met Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud while being brought into the organization's inner core. But U.S. analysts are skeptical that Mehsud, who narrowly survived a Predator strike earlier this year, would risk meeting face-to-face with an unproved American recruit.the music of sadness
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